Methodology for the Quantitative Treatment of Variability and Uncertainty in Performance-Based Engineering Analysis and/or Decision Analysis With a Case Study in Residential Fire Sprinklers.
Methodology for the Quantitative Treatment of
Variability and Uncertainty in Performance-Based
Engineering Analysis and/or Decision Analysis With a
Case Study in Residential Fire Sprinklers.
(1270 K)
Notarianni, K. A.; Fischbeck, P. S.
Pacific Rim Conference and Second (2nd) International
Conference on Performance-Based Codes and Fire Safety
Design Methods. Proceedings. International Code
Council and the Society of Fire Protection Engineers
(SFPE). May 3-9, 1998, Maui, HI, International Code
Council, Birmingham, AL, 225-239 pp, 1998.
Keywords:
performance based codes; fire safety; decision analysis;
sprinklers; residential buildings; fire protection;
methodology; fire losses; fire statistics; costs;
sensitivity analysis; residential sprinklers;
uncertainty
Abstract:
Implementation of any form of a performance-based
standard will require many decisions to be made. These
decisions will be more difficult, more complex, and more
uncertain than under a prescriptive-based code. This
paper presents a methodology which quantitatively treats
variability and uncertainty and applies it to a complex
fire protection engineering problem. The methodology is
both rigorous and user-friendly. It does not require
quantification of all uncertainties in an analysis. A
three-phase approach is utilized which identifies those
variables with ranges great enough to reverse the final
decision and encodes uncertainty on them. Information
about the uncertainty of these critical variables is
then empolyed in the analysis. Results are displayed
graphically as either discrete or continuous joint
probability distributions. The methodology also
demonstrates ways of handling value judgments, such as
the value of premature death avoided, by means of
comparative analysis, parametric analyses, or switchover
analysis. This methodology was applied to a model for
determining the benefits and costs of residential fire
sprinklers. Results from this study provide insights
about the merits of residential fire sprinkler systems
which were not evident in previous studies.
