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Review of International Fire Risk Prediction Methods.

pdf icon Review of International Fire Risk Prediction Methods. (468 K)
Bukowski, R. W.

U.S./Japan Government Cooperative Program on Natural Resources (UJNR). Fire Research and Safety. 12th Joint Panel Meeting. October 27-November 2, 1992, Tsukuba, Japan, Building Research Inst., Ibaraki, Japan Fire Research Inst., Tokyo, Japan, 232-240 pp, 1992.


fire safety; fire research; fire risk; risk assessment; methodology; risk analysis


Over the decade of the 1980's computer models and other predictive methods were increasingly applied to a board range of practical problems in fire safety. Experience gained in this way showed that careful treatment of complex problems resulted in more consistant and defensible solutions than relying solely on expert judgement. Further, uncertainties in the models' predictions were no greater than those associated with the traditional, but much more expensive full-scale experimental studies. Separate, multi-year research projects in Japan and the United States resulted in the publication of prorotype fire hazard analysis systems which demonstrated the ability to account for the complex interactions of the fire, building, active protection systems, occupant actions, and detailed outcomes including damage estimates and fatality counts.