Review of International Fire Risk Prediction Methods. Session 7: The Future - What Does It Hold?
Review of International Fire Risk Prediction Methods.
Session 7: The Future - What Does It Hold?
Bukowski, R. W.
CSIRO. International Fire Safety Engineering
Conference. Concept and the Tools. Presented for FORUM
for International Cooperation on Fire Research.
Supported by SFPE, NFPA, AFPA, AAFA. October 18-20,
1992, Sydney, Australia, 1-11 pp, 1992.
fire safety; safety engineering; fire risk; evaluation;
Over the decade of the 1980's, computer models and other
predictive methods were increasingly applied to a broad
range of practical problems in fire safety. Experience
gained in this way showed that careful treatment of
complex problems resulted in more consistant and
defensible solutions than relaying solely on expert
judgement. Further, uncertainities inthe models'
predictions were no greater than those associated with
the traditional, but much more expensive full-scale
experimental studies. Separate, multi-year research
projects in Japan and the United States resulted in the
publication of prototype fire hazard analysis systems
which demonstrated the ability to account for the
complex interactions of the fire, building, active
protection systems, occupant actions, and detailed
outcomes including damage estimates and fatality counts.