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Review of International Fire Risk Prediction Methods. Session 7: The Future - What Does It Hold?


pdf icon Review of International Fire Risk Prediction Methods. Session 7: The Future - What Does It Hold? (447 K)
Bukowski, R. W.

CSIRO. International Fire Safety Engineering Conference. Concept and the Tools. Presented for FORUM for International Cooperation on Fire Research. Supported by SFPE, NFPA, AFPA, AAFA. October 18-20, 1992, Sydney, Australia, 1-11 pp, 1992.

Keywords:

fire safety; safety engineering; fire risk; evaluation; risk assessment

Abstract:

Over the decade of the 1980's, computer models and other predictive methods were increasingly applied to a broad range of practical problems in fire safety. Experience gained in this way showed that careful treatment of complex problems resulted in more consistant and defensible solutions than relaying solely on expert judgement. Further, uncertainities inthe models' predictions were no greater than those associated with the traditional, but much more expensive full-scale experimental studies. Separate, multi-year research projects in Japan and the United States resulted in the publication of prototype fire hazard analysis systems which demonstrated the ability to account for the complex interactions of the fire, building, active protection systems, occupant actions, and detailed outcomes including damage estimates and fatality counts.