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Theoretical Rationalization of a Goal-Oriented Systems Approach to Building Fire Safety.


pdf icon Theoretical Rationalization of a Goal-Oriented Systems Approach to Building Fire Safety. (9356 K)
Watts, J.

NBS GCR 79-163; 263 p. February 28, 1978.

Sponsor:

National Bureau of Standards, Gaithersburg, MD

Available from:

National Technical Information Service
Order number: PB-294684

Keywords:

barrier analysis; compartment fires; compartments; fault tree analysis; fire models; fire protection engineering; probability statistics; systems analysis; systems safety; walls

Abstract:

The Goal Oriented Systems Approach to Building Fire Safety Developed by the U.S. General Services Administration is presently the only probabilistic methodology for fire protection evaluation in use in the United States. This paper describes and analyzes the GSA approach and formulates a more scientific procedure by synthesizing GSA concepts with additional probability theory. Discussion of systems analysis and modeling concepts emphasizes the need for probabilistic considerations of fire safety. The revised model, identified by the hyphenated expression: Goal-Oriented, simplifies a data requirements through parameter estimation techniques. The new approach is consistent with the GSA model for several example cases. A demonstrated advantage of the new methodology is the facility for sensitivity analysis of alternative fire protection strategies.