Impact Assessment of New York State's Cigarette Fire Safety Performance Standard.
Impact Assessment of New York State's Cigarette Fire
Safety Performance Standard.
(893 K)
Ruegg, R.; Petraglia, L.
NIST GCR 05-882; 222 p. December 2005.
Sponsor:
National Institute of Standards and Technology,
Gaithersburg, MD
Keywords:
cigarettes; fire safety; standards; impact; economic
impacts; low-ignition cigarettes; residential buildings;
uncertainity; scenarios; ignition; legislation;
sensitivity analysis
Abstract:
New York State is the first state in the nation to pass
legislation aimed at reducing the cigarette fire problem
by setting a standard requiring all cigarettes sold in
the State to have a reduced risk of accidentally
igniting household furnishings. The goal of this study
is to develop a methodology to assess the impacts of
cigarette fire safety standards and to present results
for a base case and for alternative scenarios to shed
light on possible impacts of the standard within the
State. It estimates first-order impacts, defined as the
direct human costs of residential fires caused by
cigarettes, including number of deaths and injuries, and
value of fire property damage. It also estimates
second-order impacts, defined as State-wide economic
effects of reduced fire losses, and State-wide economic
effects that may result from price- or preference-driven
shifts in cigarette purchases, including impacts on
in-State businesses, and changes in State-wide
expenditures, income, jobs, and excise tax revenues. The
study uses a benefit-cost methodology as an organizing
framework for the impact assessment and the Regional
Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) forecasting model for NY
State to estimate second-order economic impacts. The
study projects residential fire losses due to
cigarette-caused fires in NY State over a six-year
period of analysis at approximately 180 deaths, 1,460
injuries, and $80 million in direct property losses.
These are the projected losses the standard seeks to
avoid. A complicating factor is that existing
tax-related diversion of cigarettes to out-of-state
channels may possibly lower the ability of the standard
to reduce losses. However, if manufacturers produce
cigarettes that comply with or exceed the standard's
requirements, that are acceptable to smokers, and that
are priced in line with non-complying cigarettes, the
standard is positioned to generate net benefits. If
producers increase prices of complying cigarettes or if
smokers are dissatisfied, diversion of cigarettes to
non-complying channels could increase, and these
developments would be expected to reduce fire-loss
avoidance and generate negative impacts on business
sales and State excise tax. The study assumes that the
standard will not change smoking health effects because
compliant cigarettes are believed to have about the same
smoking-related toxicity effects as non-compliant
cigarettes, and it is assumed that any price- or
preference-driven reductions in the consumption of
compliant cigarettes will be offset by shifts to
purchases of non-compliant cigarettes through channels
not regulated by the State. Reflecting uncertainties,
the study presents projected impact estimates for a
number of alternative, hypothetical scenarios. The
methodology may be useful to other states for use in
assessing potential impacts of cigarette fire safety
standards.
Building and Fire Research Laboratory
National Institute of Standards and Technology
Gaithersburg, MD 20899