NIST Time|NIST Home|About NIST|Contact NIST

HomeAll Years:AuthorKeywordTitle2005-2010:AuthorKeywordTitle

Guide for Evaluating the Predictive Capabilities of Computer Egress Models.


pdf icon Guide for Evaluating the Predictive Capabilities of Computer Egress Models. (682 K)
Lord, J.; Meacham, B.; Moore, A.; Fahy, R. F.; Proulx, G.

NIST GCR 06-886; 107 p. December 2005.

Sponsor:

National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD

Keywords:

egress; computer models; standards; human behavior; literature reviews

Abstract:

To begin addressing the issue of uncertainty and variability in egress data and in computational models for egress analysis, a three-year research study began in September 2002 under a grant from the National Institute for Standards and Technology, Building and Fire Research Laboratory (Grant 6ONANB2D0138), "Uncertainty in Egress Models and Data: Investigation of Dominant Parameters and Extent of Their Impact on Predicted Outcomes." The primary goals of this work were to:* Understand sources of uncertainty and variability in egress models.* Apply and refine a method of uncertainty analysis to computer egress modeling. *Identify "cross-over" variables that may have an impact on the results of the egress model that is significant enough to cause a change in an engineer's design of a building. * Provide building engineers with guidance in the appropriate use of computer egress models. The results of this three-year research study are provided in this document, broken into several informational appendices. (Year 1 Summary (September 2002 - September 2003); Year 2 Summary (September 2003 - September 2004) and Year 3 Summary (September 2004 - December 2005)