Guide for Evaluating the Predictive Capabilities of Computer Egress Models.
Guide for Evaluating the Predictive Capabilities of
Computer Egress Models.
Lord, J.; Meacham, B.; Moore, A.; Fahy, R. F.; Proulx,
NIST GCR 06-886; 107 p. December 2005.
Sponsor:National Institute of Standards and Technology,
egress; computer models; standards; human behavior;
To begin addressing the issue of uncertainty and
variability in egress data and in computational models
for egress analysis, a three-year research study began
in September 2002 under a grant from the National
Institute for Standards and Technology, Building and
Fire Research Laboratory (Grant 6ONANB2D0138),
"Uncertainty in Egress Models and Data: Investigation of
Dominant Parameters and Extent of Their Impact on
Predicted Outcomes." The primary goals of this work were
to:* Understand sources of uncertainty and variability
in egress models.* Apply and refine a method of
uncertainty analysis to computer egress modeling.
*Identify "cross-over" variables that may have an impact
on the results of the egress model that is significant
enough to cause a change in an engineer's design of a
building. * Provide building engineers with guidance in
the appropriate use of computer egress models. The
results of this three-year research study are provided
in this document, broken into several informational
appendices. (Year 1 Summary (September 2002 - September
2003); Year 2 Summary (September 2003 - September 2004)
and Year 3 Summary (September 2004 - December 2005)