Role of Uncertainty in Improving Fire Protection Regulation.
Role of Uncertainty in Improving Fire Protection
Regulation.
(17792 K)
Notarianni, K. A.
THESIS; 269 p. April 2000.
Keywords:
fire protection; regulations; fire protection
engineering; uncertainty; fire safety; safety
engineering; methodology; costs; building fires;
sprinklers; cost effectiveness; residential sprinklers
Abstract:
This dissertation defines an important role for
uncertainty analysis in the adoption and implementation
of improved fire protection regulations, both
prescriptive and performance. It makes specific
contributions to each of fifteen stakeholder groups who
play a role in the conception, design, use, and
maintenance of a building. This dissertation promotes an
understanding of the nature and sources of uncertainty,
develops a common language among fire-safety
professionals, and facilitates stakeholder discussions.
Seven barriers to determining and documenting a level of
fire safety for a given project are identified and the
potential for switchover in the acceptability of a
design is demonstrated. A taxonomy is created that is
useful as a aid in understanding, identifying, and
investigating uncertainties as a function of the steps
in a fire safety-engineering calculation. A generic
methodology for the treatment of uncertainty in
fire-safety engineering calculations is proposed. This
methodology structures and quantifies many aspects of
good engineering and policy analysis as applied to
fire-safety engineering. The process developed is
iterative and shows where effort should be made to treat
complexity and where best-guess or average numbers can
be used. Modifications to the current performance-based
design process are suggested to provide for integration
of uncertainty analysis. Presentation of a case study
shows the importance of a model that properly
incorporates uncertainty over a traditional
deterministic model. A model that handles the critical
uncertainties is even more important as policymakers
move toward a performance-based design context. Results
of the case study provide insights useful for selecting
design criteria, improving code language, and
establishing research programs to support
performance-based fire safety designs that ensure
fire-safe buildings. Through an evaluation of the
cost-effectiveness of mandating residential fire
sprinklers, this dissertation also demonstrates the
value of properly incorporating variability and
uncertainty in a cost-effectiveness and benefit-cost
decision-making context. For the residential sprinkler
problem, this was accomplished by discretizing national
average values of fire statistics and costs by area of
the country, community size, house type, and house age.
This study shows that mandating residential fire
sprinklers in new mobile homes can be cost-effective
when compared to other residential life-saving options.
