Estimates of Hurricane Wind Speeds by the 'Peaks Over Threshold' Method.
Estimates of Hurricane Wind Speeds by the 'Peaks Over
Simiu, E.; Heckert, N. A.; Whalen, T. M.
NIST TN 1416; 49 p. February 1996.
Journal of Structural Engineering, Vol. 124, No. 4,
445-449, April 1998.
Sponsor:NATO Scientific Affairs Division, Brussels, Belgium
Available from: National Technical Information Service
Order number: PB96-162540
weather effects; hurricanes; building technology;
building codes; climatology; extreme value theory; load
factors; structural engineering; structural reliability;
threshold methods; wind (meteorology)
We report results that lend support to the hypothesis
that extreme hurricane wind speeds are described
predominantly by reverse Weibull distributions, which
have limited upper tails. The results are based on the
analysis of hurricane wind speed data obtained in an
earlier project and used for the development of the ASCE
7-83 and ASCE 7-93 Standard wind speed map. According
to our results, wind load factors should be larger in
hurricane-prone regions than the load factor specified
in current standard provisions. However, the requisite
increases are smaller than would be the case if the
distributions were assumed to have infinite upper tails,
as has been done so far in all principal studies of
hurricane winds in the United States.