Study of Optimal Extreme Wind Estimation Procedures.
Study of Optimal Extreme Wind Estimation Procedures.
(868 K)
Gross, J. L.; Heckert, N. A.; Lechner, J. A.; Simiu, E.
Indian Society for Wind Engineering. Sponsored by
University of Roorkee, New Delhi. International
Association for Wind Engineering. State of the Art in
Wind Engineering. Volume 1. Proceedings. International
Conference on Wind Engineering, 9th. Davenport Sixtieth
Birth Anniversary Volume. January 9-13, 1995, New
Delhi, India, Wiley Eastern Limited, New Delhi, India,
69-80 pp, 1995.
Keywords:
wind velocity; building technology; estimation
procedures; extreme value theory; extreme value theory;
monte carlo simulation; wind engineering
Abstract:
We describe work aimed at improving procedures for the
estimation of non-tornadic extreme wind speeds,
regardless of their direction, in regions not subjected
to hurricanes. Using the Generalized ParetoDistribution
(GPD) approach and the Conditional MeanExceedance (CME)
estimation method, we analyze 115 17-year to 52-year
sets of largest annual speeds and sets drawn from 48
15-year to 26-year records of maximum daily wind speeds.
Based on this analysis we attempt an assessment of the
widely held belief that the Gumbel distribution with
site-dependent location and scale parameters is a
universal model of extreme wind speeds. Some of our
results suggest that the reverse Weibull distribution is
a more appropriate model. This would result in more
reasonable estimates of wind-induced failure
probabilities and wind load factors than the
corresponding estimates based on the Gumbel
distribution. However, our assessment is so far only
tentative owing to uncertainties inherent in our
results. Future work based on lower thresholds (larger
data samples) and alternative estimation methods is
planned.
Building and Fire Research Laboratory
National Institute of Standards and Technology
Gaithersburg, MD 20899