Extreme Wind Estimates by the Conditional Mean Exceedance Procedure.
Extreme Wind Estimates by the Conditional Mean
Gross, J. L.; Simiu, E.; Heckert, N. A.; Lechner, J. A.
NISTIR 5531; 16 p. April 1995.
Available from: National Technical Information Service
Order number: PB95-220471
building technology; wind velocity; beams; columns;
concretes; connections; cyclic loading; joints; precast;
post-tensioning; story drift
We describe work aimed at improving procedures for the
estimation of non-tornadic extreme wind speeds,
regardless of their direction, in regions not subjected
to hurricanes. Using the Generalized Pareto
Distribution (GPD) approach and the Conditional Mean
Exceedance (CME) estimation method, we analyze 115
17-year to 52-year sets of largest annual speeds and
sets drawn from 48 15-year to 26-year records of maximum
daily wind speeds. Based on this analysis we attempt an
assessment of the widely held belief that the Gumbel
distribution with site-dependent location and scale
parameters is a universal model of extreme wind speeds.
Some of our results suggest that the reverse Weibull
distribution is a more appropriate model. This would
result in more reasonable estimates of wind-induced
failure probabilities and wind load factors than the
corresponding estimates based on the Gumbel
distribution. However, our assessment is so far only
tentative owing to uncertainties inherent in our
results. Future work based on lower thresholds (larger
data samples) and alternative estimation methods is