Extreme Wind Distribution Tails: A 'Peaks Over Threshold' Approach.
Extreme Wind Distribution Tails: A 'Peaks Over
Simiu, E.; Heckert, N. A.
NIST BSS 174; 77 p. March 1995.
Journal of Structural Engineering, Vol. 122, No. 5,
539-547, May 1996.
Sponsor:National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA
Available from: Government Printing Office
Order number: SN003-003-03322-7
extreme value theory; threshold methods; wind effects;
meteorology; building technology; building codes;
climatology; load factors; structural engineering; wind
velocity; structural reliability
We seek to ascertain whether the reverse Weibull
distribution is an appropriate extreme wind speed model
by performing statistical analyses based on the 'peaks
over threshold' approach. We use the de Haan method,
which was found in previous studies to perform about as
well or better than the Pickands and Cumulative Mean
Exceedance methods, and has the advantage of providing
estimates of confidence bounds. The data are taken
principally from records of the largest daily wind
speeds obtained over periods of 15 to 26 years at 44
U.S. weather stations in areas not subjected to mature
hurricane winds. From these records we create samples
with reduced mutual correlation among the data. In our
opinion, the analyses provide persuassive evidence that
extreme wind speeds are described predominantly by
reverse Weibull distributions, which unlike the Gumbel
distribution have finite upper tail and lead to
reasonable estimates of wind load factors. Instructions
are provided for accessing the data and attendant