Fragility Curves, Damage Matrices, and Wind-Induced Loss Estimation.
Fragility Curves, Damage Matrices, and Wind-Induced Loss
Estimation.
(1125 K)
Filliben, J. J.; Gurley, K.; Pinelli, J. P.; Simiu, E.
Computer Simulation in Risk Analysis and Hazard
Mitigation, 3rd (Third) International Conference.
Proceedings. June 19-21, 2002, Sintra, Portugal,
119-126 pp, 2002.
Keywords:
wind velocity; damage matrix; extreme wind speeds;
fragility curves; loss estimation; costs
Abstract:
This note presents a conceptual framework for the
definition of basic damage states and of the
corresponding fragility curves and conditional
probabilities, and its use for the estimation of damage
matrices. The framework is designed with two
considerations in mind. First, losses due to multiple
types of damage are calculated so that no type of damage
is counted more than once, no type of possible damage is
omitted from the calculations, and all interactions
between various types of damage are accounted for.
Damage is included that may vary continuously as a
function of wind speed but is discretized for
computational purposes. Second, the losses are
calculated by correctly accounting for the dependence
between various damage states (e.g., window breakage and
roof uplift). The note also discusses the use of damage
matrices for the estimation of expected losses due to a
windstorm event, of expected annual losses, and of
measures of uncertainty pertaining to expected losses,
both at a specified location and over a larger
geographical area. The framework developed in the paper
is illustrated for the conceptually simple case of two
basic damage states. Work is in progress on the
application of the framework to various types of
structures involving larger numbers of basic damage
states with various mutual dependence and damage
sequence scenarios. Work is also in progress on the
estimation of uncertainties in loss calculations, based
on certainties in the estimation of fragility curves,
associated conditional probabilities, and hurricane wind
speeds. One of the applications of our work is the
development of vulnerability curves and associated
uncertainty measures for cases where comprehensive loss
data from which such curves may be developed are not
available.
