Estimates of Extreme Wind Effects and Wind Load Factors: Influence of Knowledge Uncertainties.
Estimates of Extreme Wind Effects and Wind Load Factors:
Influence of Knowledge Uncertainties.
Minciarelli, F.; Gioffre, M.; Grigoriu, M.; Simiu, E.
Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, Vol. 16, No. 4,
wind effects; chaotic resonance; hopping rates;
signal-to-noise ratio; hurricanes; load factors; Monte
Carlo simulation; reliability; structural engineering
We propose a probabilistic methodology for developing
improved estimates of extreme wind effects and load
factors in standard provisions for wind loads. We
obtained the following results: (1) the discrepancy
between current estimates of safety indices for gravity
and wind loads is an artifact that can be removed by
using current knowledge on probability distributions of
extreme wind speeds; (2) the disregard in the ASCE 7-98
Standard of (a)knowledge uncertainties, and (b) errors
inherent in the limited number of climatological data on
which hurricane wind speed simulations are based, leads
to incorrect wind load factor estimates for
hurricane-prone regions; and (3) increasing beyond 30
min the length of pressure records used for the
estimation of fluctuation peaks appears to have a
relatively small effect on estimates of overall wind